ElectroniCast Consultants

General information

In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, ElectroniCast combines several techniques:
Product consumption and production history is determined by:
• Interviews of the leading product or service users and producers ("dual track" primary research)
• Secondary research (a review of published information, including industry data, technical papers, financial reports)
This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service: value, price trends, application trends, leading producers and their market shares.

The forecast, working from this historical data, is based on interviews of:
• Users (mainly design engineers who decide which product to specify)
• Suppliers (manufacturers, distributors, transporters)
• Researchers (industrial, government, university)
• Government agencies

The short range (1-2 years) forecast is based mainly on a consensus of supplier and user
viewpoints. If adequate historical data are available, projections also may contribute to the short-range forecast. These methods, however, are not suitable for long-range forecasts, especially for advanced-technology products.

The long-range forecast is based upon the following sequence:
• The advancement of technology of the product, competing products and the end applications is forecasted based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field.
• The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following perspectives:
• Real value to user, determined by user interviews
• Displacement of competing products
• Creation of new markets
• The production of the end-use equipments or systems is forecasted.
• Production costs, and thus minimum pricing, of the product at various quantity levels are
analyzed.
• The demand forecast is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application analysis.
The analysis of cost-effectiveness and understanding of the user perception of risk of the product provide insight into the rate of penetration of the product into the various end applications at its minimum profitable price. Input/output analysis applies the penetration forecasts to the end-application production forecasts to provide a cross-check of the product consumption forecast. This consumption forecast is then adjusted by forecasted imports and exports, inventory change, R&D use, and other non-production markets to derive the total production forecast. Finally, by user interviews, the production forecasts are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus available (merchant) market. The forecast data are computer-processed and the forecasts are available on CD Rom or via e-mail delivery.